{"id":6263,"date":"2020-07-13T21:05:34","date_gmt":"2020-07-13T21:05:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/web\/?p=6263"},"modified":"2021-02-05T15:24:47","modified_gmt":"2021-02-05T15:24:47","slug":"el-secreto-esta-en-los-arbitrajes-seguimiento-de-la-estrategia-del-2-de-julio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/el-secreto-esta-en-los-arbitrajes-seguimiento-de-la-estrategia-del-2-de-julio\/","title":{"rendered":"El Secreto est\u00e1 en los arbitrajes, seguimiento de la estrategia del 2 de julio"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Por Agust\u00edn Fernandez Naredo y Celina Mesquida – RJO’Brien | Especial para Agroeducaci\u00f3n<\/h6>\n<\/header>\n
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Hagamos el siguiente ejercicio.<\/strong><\/p>\n

En l\u00ednea con lo que comentamos en la columna del 2 de julio, vamos a tomar el \u00faltimo p\u00e1rrafo a modo de seguimiento de la estrategia. El Secreto est\u00e1 en los arbitrajes.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cPasando a la campa\u00f1a 2020\/21 y en l\u00ednea con el an\u00e1lisis que estamos haciendo, MAT Abril 21 ayer cerr\u00f3 a 134.5 d\u00f3lares, lo que implica un basis de 14 d\u00f3lares. Por ende, si tomo dos escenarios que pasaron el en campa\u00f1a 2019\/20, los precios finales de venta si hoy vendes CBOT en lugar de vender MAT terminar\u00edan en el rango de 150\/162 d\u00f3lares por tonelada. \u00bfEntonces, Qu\u00e9 mercado vendes hoy?\u201d<\/p>\n

Con la fuerte ca\u00edda de CBOT durante las \u00faltimas 2 sesiones en ma\u00edz, el diferencial de precios entre CBOT y MAT pas\u00f3 a ser de 6.2USD\/tn, considerando valor actual MATba abril 21 a 133 USD\/tn y CBOT CK21 a 139 USD\/tn. Mientras que, al momento de confeccionar esta estrategia propuesta, MATba Abril val\u00eda 134.5 USD\/tn y CBOT CK21 148.5 USD\/tn. Por lo tanto, siguiendo la estrategia, el precio final de venta hoy ser\u00eda de 140.8 USD (se conforma por 9,3 USD\/tn de ganancia -por la venta en Chicago el 2 de julio y compra hoy- y 1,5 USD\/tn de perdida por la compra en MATba, o sea la operaci\u00f3n inversa de CBOT)<\/p>\n

Como siempre el objetivo de realizar el seguimiento de las herramientas planteadas es poner en pr\u00e1ctica la utilizaci\u00f3n de arbitrajes entre mercados y elaborar los precios de venta utilizando la volatilidad de las basis.<\/p>\n

Gr\u00e1fico 1. Basis en USD\/ton y precio maiz abril 2020 y 2021<\/strong><\/h5>\n
En negro y naranja sobre el eje de la izquierda basis 2019\/20 y 2020\/21 respectivamente. En el eje de la derecha, en azul y rojo, tenemos precios MAT posici\u00f3n maiz abril 2020 y 2021 respectivamente.<\/h6>\n

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Grafico 2. Estacional maiz MATba posici\u00f3n Abril en USD\/ton.<\/strong><\/h5>\n

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Grafico 3. Estacional maiz CBOT posici\u00f3n Mayo en USD\/ton.<\/strong><\/h5>\n

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 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Agust\u00edn Fern\u00e1ndez Naredo y Celina Mesquida – RJO’Brien | Docente de Agroeducaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/i><\/p>\n

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Por Agust\u00edn Fernandez Naredo y Celina Mesquida – RJO’Brien | Especial para Agroeducaci\u00f3n Hagamos el siguiente ejercicio. En l\u00ednea con lo que comentamos en la columna del 2 de julio, vamos a tomar el \u00faltimo p\u00e1rrafo a modo de seguimiento de la estrategia. El Secreto est\u00e1 en los arbitrajes. \u201cPasando a la campa\u00f1a 2020\/21 y …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":6268,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[90],"class_list":["post-6263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-celina-mesquida"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6263"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6263\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9216,"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6263\/revisions\/9216"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.agroeducacion.com\/website\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}